Resolved Oct 12, 2026 · 4 months after it aired
Pivot #725 · Aired Jun 12, 2026
Only applies if: If the SEC (via Chair Paul Atkins) waives the rule preventing retail investors from participating in SpaceX shares before the standard price-settling period
Counts as true if: Campaign finance disclosures show Elon Musk contributed approximately $10 billion to Republican efforts in the 2026 midterm elections.
The SEC condition was effectively met via Atkins-era rule changes enabling broad retail participation in the SpaceX IPO (June 12, 2026). However, Musk's disclosed 2026 midterm political giving totals only about $276-366 million as of the October 12-13, 2026 FEC filings—roughly 27x short of the predicted $10 billion—with only three weeks left before the November 3 midterms, leaving no plausible path to reach anywhere near that figure. The editor's alternate theory that Musk's giving exceeds combined Democratic fundraising is also false: Democratic candidates alone raised about $1.5 billion as of September 2026, dwarfing Musk's total by a wide margin.
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Full transcript →Only if: If the SEC (via Chair Paul Atkins) waives the rule preventing retail investors from participating in SpaceX shares before the standard price-settling period
“if he called the president and said, hey, call Paul and tell them to do away with this stupid rule such that retail good Americans can't invest in the best companies. And I got a hankering to put $10,000,000,000 to work in the midterms.”
Jun 12, 2026 · Politics · Conditional · Checkable · by Nov 3, 2026
“It's probably gonna be the Doctors Without Borders or Sudan's emergency response rooms.”
Oct 9, 2026 · Politics · Either/or · Checkable · by Oct 9, 2026
“I don't think he'll get this.”
Oct 9, 2026 · Politics · Checkable · by Oct 9, 2026
“You're gonna see trade deals between the EU and China.”
Apr 15, 2025 · Politics · Checkable · by Apr 15, 2026 (inferred)
“basically it's going to come down to three players. It's going to be Netflix. It's going to be Warner Bros. Discovery. And it's going to be probably the biggest niche player will be Disney, which will own Family.”
Jan 8, 2024 · M&A · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
Only if: If Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount merge
“And together, they will hold on to 90% of the combined revenues, and they'll be able to cut costs by 20%.”
Jan 8, 2024 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
Only if: If Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount merge
“And together, they will hold on to 90% of the combined revenues, and they'll be able to cut costs by 20%.”
Jan 8, 2024 · M&A · Conditional · Judgment call · by Dec 31, 2025 (inferred)
“Well, the merger... The gangster merger of the ages would be the following. Netflix and Disney.”
Oct 3, 2025 · M&A · Checkable · by Oct 3, 2026 (inferred)
“I don't know exactly, but I think it's pricing next week.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 2, 2026
“I think this is gonna be I think this is gonna be a very successful IPO.”
Sep 25, 2026 · Markets · Checkable · by Oct 9, 2026 (inferred)
10 of 909 resolved predictions
